openintro (version 1.7.1)

houseRace10: Election results for the 2010 U.S. House of Represenatives races

Description

Election results for the 2010 U.S. House of Represenatives races

Usage

data(houseRace10)

Format

A data frame with 435 observations on the following 24 variables.

id

Unique identifier for the race, which does not overlap with other 2010 races (see govRace10 and senateRace10)

state

State name

abbr

State name abbreviation

num

District number for the state

name1

Name of the winning candidate

perc1

Percentage of vote for winning candidate (if more than one candidate)

party1

Party of winning candidate

votes1

Number of votes for winning candidate

name2

Name of candidate with second most votes

perc2

Percentage of vote for candidate who came in second

party2

Party of candidate with second most votes

votes2

Number of votes for candidate who came in second

name3

Name of candidate with third most votes

perc3

Percentage of vote for candidate who came in third

party3

Party of candidate with third most votes

votes3

Number of votes for candidate who came in third

name4

Name of candidate with fourth most votes

perc4

Percentage of vote for candidate who came in fourth

party4

Party of candidate with fourth most votes

votes4

Number of votes for candidate who came in fourth

name5

Name of candidate with fifth most votes

perc5

Percentage of vote for candidate who came in fifth

party5

Party of candidate with fifth most votes

votes5

Number of votes for candidate who came in fifth

Details

This analysis in the Examples section was inspired by and is similar to that of Nate Silver's district-level analysis on the FiveThirtyEight blog in the New York Times:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/08/2010-an-aligning-election/

Examples

# NOT RUN {
data(houseRace10)
hr <- table(houseRace10[,c("abbr", "party1")])
nr <- apply(hr, 1, sum)

data(prRace08)
pr   <- prRace08[prRace08$state != "DC",c("state", "pObama")]
hr   <- hr[as.character(pr$state),]
(fit <- glm(hr ~ pr$pObama, family=binomial))

x1 <- pr$pObama[match(houseRace10$abbr, pr$state)]
y1 <- (houseRace10$party1 == "Democrat")+0
g  <- glm(y1 ~ x1, family=binomial)


x  <- pr$pObama[pr$state != "DC"]
nr <- apply(hr, 1, sum)
plot(x, hr[,"Democrat"] / nr,
    pch = 19, cex = sqrt(nr), col = "#22558844",
    xlim = c(20, 80), ylim = c(0, 1),
    xlab = "Percent vote for Obama in 2008",
    ylab = "Probability of Democrat winning House seat")
X  <- seq(0, 100, 0.1)
lo <- -5.6079 + 0.1009*X
p  <- exp(lo)/(1+exp(lo))
lines(X, p)
abline(h=0:1, lty=2, col="#888888")
# }