A method to plot and/or return the estimated consumption path vs development year time for standard models.
The object from which to plot and/or return the estimated consumption path.
A logical value. If TRUE, the plot is generated and the statistics are returned; otherwise only the statistics are returned.
Mainly called for the side effect of plotting. Also returns the plotted statistics. Returned invisibly.
At the heart of aggregate loss development models in BALD is the consumption path. The consumption path is (on a log scale) the trajectory of incremental payments absent any calendar year effects and wisht exposure normalized to the first row. Note that the measurement error term is (possibly) a skewed \(t\) and as such (possibly) has a non zero mean. The consumption path is absent any such shifts due to skewness. This is a method that allows for the retrieval and illustration of this consumption path.
The standard model has a common consumption path for all exposure years.
Because the model is Bayesian, the estimated consumption path comes as a distribution; only the median is plotted and/or returned.
consumptionPath
consumptionPath("BreakAnnualAggLossDevModelOutput")