This function plots the phi parameter value estimated in each sampled generation of the MCMC against the index of that sampled generation. For convenience, the \(F_{k}\) statistic is presented in place of the phi parameter, as this is the statistic users care about. \(F_{k}\) is defined as \(\frac{1}{1+phi_{k}}\).
plot_phi_trace(phi, percent.burnin = 0, thinning = 1, population.names = NULL,
pop.index = NULL)
The vector of phi values estimated for a single population from an MCMC run.
The percent of the sampled MCMC generations to be discarded as "burn-in." If the
MCMC is run for 1,000,000 generations, and sampled every 1,000 generations, there
will be 1,000 sampled generations. A percent.burnin of 20 will discard
the first 200 sampled parameter values from that sample.
The multiple by which the sampled MCMC generations are thinned. A thinning of
5 will sample every 5th MCMC generation.
The name of the population/individual for which the marginal density of the phi
parameter is being plotted. This will be used to title the marginal plot. If
population.names is not provided (i.e. population.names = NULL), a
population index number will be used to title the plot.
A population index number generated to title a marginal plot if no
population.names is specified.
Gideon Bradburd
A trace plot is a basic visual tool for assessing MCMC mixing. If the chain is mixing well, the trace plot will resemble a "fuzzy caterpillar." If the trace plot has not plateaued, it is an indication that the chain has not converged on the stationary posterior distribution, and must be run longer. If the trace plot of a parameter exhibits high autocorrelation, the user may wish to either increase or decrease the scale of the tuning parameter on that parameter, to decrease or increase acceptance rates, respectively. If the chain appears to be bouncing between areas of "fuzzy caterpillar-dom," it may be an indication of a multi-modal likelihood surface.