beav1 <- within(beav1,
hours <- 24*(day-346) + trunc(time/100) + (time%%100)/60)
plot(beav1$hours, beav1$temp, type="l", xlab="time",
ylab="temperature", main="Beaver 1")
usr <- par("usr"); usr[3:4] <- c(-0.2, 8); par(usr=usr)
lines(beav1$hours, beav1$activ, type="s", lty=2)
temp <- ts(c(beav1$temp[1:82], NA, beav1$temp[83:114]),
start = 9.5, frequency = 6)
activ <- ts(c(beav1$activ[1:82], NA, beav1$activ[83:114]),
start = 9.5, frequency = 6)
acf(temp[1:53])
acf(temp[1:53], type = "partial")
ar(temp[1:53])
act <- c(rep(0, 10), activ)
X <- cbind(1, act = act[11:125], act1 = act[10:124],
act2 = act[9:123], act3 = act[8:122])
alpha <- 0.80
stemp <- as.vector(temp - alpha*lag(temp, -1))
sX <- X[-1, ] - alpha * X[-115,]
beav1.ls <- lm(stemp ~ -1 + sX, na.action = na.omit)
summary(beav1.ls, cor = FALSE)
rm(temp, activ)
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