bayesLife (version 5.3-1)

e0.predict.subnat: Generating Posterior Trajectories of Subnational Life Expectancy at Birth

Description

Generates posterior trajectories of the life expectancy at birth (e0) for subregions of given countries, for female and male.

Usage

e0.predict.subnat(countries, my.e0.file, 
    sim.dir = file.path(getwd(), "bayesLife.output"), 
    method = c("ar1", "shift", "scale"),
    predict.jmale = FALSE, my.e0M.file = NULL,
    end.year = 2100, start.year = NULL, subdir = "predictions", 
    output.dir = NULL, annual = NULL, nr.traj = NULL, seed = NULL, 
    ar.pars = NULL, save.as.ascii = 0, verbose = TRUE, 
    jmale.estimates = NULL, ...)
                
e0.jmale.predict.subnat(e0.pred, estimates = NULL, 	
    gap.lim = c(0,18), max.e0.eq1.pred = 86, my.e0.file = NULL, 
    save.as.ascii = 0, verbose = TRUE)
    
subnat.gap.estimates(annual = FALSE)

Value

Function e0.predict.subnat returns a list of objects of class bayesLife.prediction. The name of each element includes its country code. Not all elements of the class bayesLife.prediction are available. For example, no mcmc.set is attached to these objects. Thus, not all functions that work with bayesLife.prediction can be applied to these results.

Function e0.jmale.predict.subnat returns an object of class bayesLife.prediction which updates the input e0.pred object by adding a new component called joint.male. This component is also an object of class bayesLife.prediction and it contains results of the male projections.

Arguments

countries

Vector of numerical country codes or country names.

my.e0.file

Tab-separated ASCII file containing the subnational e0 data. In e0.predict.subnat, if female and male e0 are projected jointly (i.e. predict.jmale is TRUE), this file should contain the female e0. In e0.jmale.predict.subnat, this file should contain the male e0. See Details for more information on its format.

sim.dir

Simulation directory with the national projections generated using e0.predict.

method

Method to use for the projections, see the reference paper.

predict.jmale

Logical determining if male projections should be generated as well. If TRUE, the argument my.e0M.file must be given.

my.e0M.file

Tab-separated ASCII file containing the subnational male e0 data.

end.year

End year of the projections.

start.year

Start year of the projections. By default, projections start at the same time point as the national projections.

subdir

Subdirectory of sim.dir containing the national predictions.

output.dir

Directory into which the resulting prediction objects and the trajectories are stored. See below for details.

annual

Logical indicating if the subnational projection should be on an annual scale or a 5-year scale. By default, the scale is matched to the national simulation given by sim.dir. If given, the scale must match to the scale of the subnational data provided in my.e0.file. If the subnational and national scales are not the same, the national trajectories are either interpolated (if annual = TRUE and the national simulation is not annual) or averaged to 5-year values (if annual = FALSE and the national simulation is annual).

nr.traj

Number of trajectories to be generated. If NULL, the number of trajectories in the national projections is used.

seed

Seed of the random number generator. If NULL no seed is set. It can be used to generate reproducible projections.

ar.pars

Named vector containing the parameter estimates for the AR(1) method (i.e. if method = "ar1", default). If given, it must have elements called rho, U, a and b. See the reference paper for details on the estimation. By default for a 5-year simulation, c(rho = 0.95, U = 82.5, a = 0.0482, b = -0.0154) is used. For an annual simulation these default parameters are scaled to c(rho = 0.9898, U = 82.5, a = 0.01, b = -0.0032), see details below.

save.as.ascii

Either a number determining how many trajectories should be converted into an ASCII file, or “all” in which case all trajectories are converted. By default no conversion is performed.

verbose

Logical switching log messages on and off.

jmale.estimates, estimates

List with estimates for the female-male gap model. The default values are retrieved using the function subnat.gap.estimates().

...

Additional arguments passed to e0.jmale.predict.subnat, which are gap.lim and max.e0.eq1.pred.

e0.pred

Object of class bayesLife.prediction. It should be one element of the list returned by e0.predict.subnat corresponding to one country.

gap.lim, max.e0.eq1.pred

The same meaning as in e0.jmale.predict.

Author

Hana Sevcikova

Details

The e0.predict.subnat function implements the methodology described in Sevcikova and Raftery (2021). Given a set of national bayesLife projections, it applies one of the methods (AR(1), Shift or Scale) to each national trajectory and each subregion of given countries which yields subnational e0 projections.

The file on subnational data passed into my.e0.file and my.e0M.file has to have a column “country_code” with numerical values corresponding to countries given in the argument countries, and column “reg_code” giving the numerical identifier of each subregion. Column “name” should be used for subregion name, and column “country_name” for country name. An optional column “include_code” can be used to eliminate entries from processing. Entries with values of 1 or 2 will be included, all others will be ignored. Column “last.observed” can be used to define which time period contains the last observed data point (given as integer, e.g. year in the middle of the time period). Remaining columns define the time periods, e.g. “2000-2005”, “2005-2010” for a 5-year simulation, or “2020”, “2021” for an annual simulation. The package contains an example of such dataset, see Example below.

The default AR(1) parameters for the “ar1” method were designed for a 5-year simulation, see Sevcikova & Raftery (2021) for more detail. These are \(\rho = 0.95, U = 82.5, a = 0.0482, b = -0.0154\). If an annual AR(1) process is desired, we use the following conversion for the autoregressive parameter \(\rho\) and the \(a\) and \(b\) parameters: \(\rho^* = \rho^{(1/5)}, a^* = a * \sqrt{((1 - \rho^{(2/5)})/(1 - \rho^2))}, b^* = b * \sqrt{((1 - \rho^{(2/5)})/(1 - \rho^2))}\). The \(U\) parameter stays the same for both processes. Thus, the annual parameters are c(rho = 0.9898, U = 82.5, a = 0.01, b = -0.0032). Note that if the ar.pars argument is specified by the user, it is assumed that the parameters have been scaled appropriately and thus, no conversion takes place.

Argument output.dir gives a location on disk where results of the function should be stored. If it is NULL (default), results are stored in the same directory as the national projections. In both cases a subdirectory called “subnat_method” is created in which each country has its own subfolder with the country code in its name. Each such subfolder contains the same type of outputs as in the national case generated using e0.predict, most importantly a directory “predictions” with trajectories for each region.

If the argument predict.jmale is TRUE, the e0.predict.subnat invokes the e0.jmale.predict.subnat function for each country. However, one can call the e0.jmale.predict.subnat function explicitly. It applies the female-male gap model to regions of one country. See e0.jmale.predict for more detail on the model. The default covariates of the model are not estimated on the fly. They were estimated externally using subnational data for about 30 countries and can be viewed using subnat.gap.estimates(), either for estimates derived from 5-year data (default) or annual data (annual = TRUE).

References

H. Sevcikova, A. E. Raftery (2021). Probabilistic Projection of Subnational Life Expectancy. Journal of Official Statistics, Vol. 37, no. 3, 591-610.

See Also

get.rege0.prediction, e0.predict, e0.jmale.predict

Examples

# View the example data
my.sube0.file <- file.path(find.package("bayesLife"), 'extdata', 'subnational_e0_template.txt')
sube0 <- read.delim(my.sube0.file, check.names = FALSE)
head(sube0)

# Directory with national projections (contains 30 trajectories for each country)
nat.dir <- file.path(find.package("bayesLife"), "ex-data", "bayesLife.output")

# Subnational projections for Australia and Canada, 
# including the joint female-male gap model
subnat.dir <- tempfile()
preds <- e0.predict.subnat(c(36, 124), my.e0.file = my.sube0.file,
    sim.dir = nat.dir, output.dir = subnat.dir, start.year = 2018)
    
names(preds)
get.countries.table(preds[["36"]])
summary(preds[["36"]], "Queensland")
e0.trajectories.plot(preds[["36"]], "Queensland")

# plot subnational and national e0 in one plot
nat.pred <- get.e0.prediction(nat.dir)
e0.trajectories.plot(preds[["36"]], 4, pi = 80)
e0.trajectories.plot(nat.pred, "Australia", add = TRUE, 
      col = rep("darkgreen", 5), nr.traj = 0, show.legend = FALSE)
legend("top", c("regional e0", "national e0"), col = c("red", "darkgreen"), 
  lty = 1, bty = 'n')

# Add male projection to Canada, 
# using (wrongly) female data only for demonstration
predCan <- e0.jmale.predict.subnat(preds[["124"]], my.e0.file = my.sube0.file)

# retrieve male prediction object
predCanMale <- get.rege0.prediction(subnat.dir, 124, joint.male = TRUE)
# the same works using
predCanMale <- get.e0.jmale.prediction(predCan)

# Retrieve female and male trajectories
trajsF.Alberta <- get.e0.trajectories(predCan, "Alberta")
trajsM.Alberta <- get.e0.trajectories(predCanMale, "Alberta")
# summary of differences
summary(t(trajsF.Alberta - trajsM.Alberta))

# cleanup
unlink(subnat.dir)

# See more examples in ?get.rege0.prediction