Kiriliouk et al. (2016, pp. 360--364) describe estimation of the spectral measure of bivariate data. Standardize the bivariate data as \(X^\star\) and \(Y^\star\) as in psepolar
and select a “large” value for the pseudo-polar radius \(S_f\) for nonexceedance probability \(f\). Estimate the spectral measure \(H(w)\), which is the limiting distribution of the pseudo-polar angle component \(W\) given that the corresponding radial component \(S\) is large:
$$\mathrm{Pr}[W \in \cdot | S > S_f] \rightarrow H(w) \mbox{\ as\ } S_f \rightarrow \infty\mbox{.}$$
So, \(H(w)\) is the cumulative distribution function of the spectral measure for angle \(w \in (0,1)\). The \(S_f\) can be specified by a nonexceedance probability \(F\) for \(S_f(F)\).
The estimation proceeds as follows:
Step 1: Convert the bivariate data \((X_i, Y_i)\) into \((\widehat{S}_i, \widehat{W}_i)\) by psepolar
and set the threshold \(S_f\) according to “\(n/k\)” (this part involving \(k\) does not make sense in Kiriliouk et al. (2016)) where for present implementation in copBasic the \(S_f\) given the \(f\) by the user is based on the empirical distribution of the \(\widehat{S}_i\). The empirical distribution is estimated by the Bernstein empirical distribution function from the lmomco package.
Step 2: Let \(I_n\) denote the set of indices that correspond to the observations when \(\widehat{S}_i \ge S_f\) and compute \(N_n\) as the cardinality of \(N_n = |I_n|\), which simply means the length of the vector \(I_n\).
Step 3: Use the maximum Euclidean likelihood estimator, which is the third of three methods mentioned by Kiriliouk et al. (2016):
$$\widehat{H}_3(w) = \sum_{i \in I_n} \hat{p}_{3,i} \times \mathbf{1}[\widehat{W}_i \le w ]\mbox{,}$$
where \(\mathbf{1}[\cdot]\) is an indicator function that is only triggered if smooth=FALSE
, and following the notation of Kiriliouk et al. (2016), the “3” represents maximum Euclidean likelihood estimation. The \(\hat{p}_{3,i}\) are are the weights
$$\hat{p}_{3,i} = \frac{1}{N_n}\bigl[ 1 - (\overline{W} - 1/2)S^{-2}_W(\widehat{W}_i - \overline{W}) \bigr]\mbox{,}$$
where \(\overline{W}\) is the sample mean and \(S^2_W\) is the sample variance of \(\widehat{W}_i\)
$$\overline{W} = \frac{1}{N_n} \sum_{i \in I_n} \widehat{W}_i\mbox{\quad and\quad } S^2_W = \frac{1}{N_n - 1} \sum_{i \in I_n} (\widehat{W}_i - \overline{W})^2\mbox{,}$$
where Kiriliouk et al. (2016, p. 363) do not show the \(N_n - 1\) in the denominator for the variance but copBasic uses it because those authors state that the sample variance is used.
Step 4: A smoothed version of \(\hat{H}_3(w)\) is optionally available by $$\tilde{H}_3(w) = \sum_{i \in I_n} \hat{p}_{3,i} \times \mathcal{B}(w;\, \widehat{W}_i\nu,\, (1-\widehat{W}_i)\nu)\mbox{,}$$ where \(\mathcal{B}(x; p, q)\) is the cumulative distribution function of the Beta distribution for \(p, q > 0\) and where \(\nu > 0\) is a smoothing parameter that can be optimized by cross validation.
Step 5: The spectral density lastly can be computed optionally as $$\tilde{h}_3(w) = \sum_{i \in I_n} \hat{p}_{3,i} \times \beta(w;\, \widehat{W}_i\nu,\, (1-\widehat{W}_i)\nu)$$ where \(\beta(x; p, q)\) is the probability density function (pdf) of the Beta distribution. Readers are alerted to the absence of the \(\mathbf{1}[\cdot]\) indicator function in the definitions of \(\tilde{H}_3(w)\) and \(\tilde{h}_3(w)\). This is correct and matches Kiriliouk et al. (2016, eqs. 17.21 and 17.22) though this author was confused for a day or so by the indicator function in what is purported to be the core definition of \(\hat{H}_l(w)\) where \(l = 3\) in Kiriliouk et al. (2016, eq. 17.21 and 17.17).
spectralmeas(u, v=NULL, w=NULL, f=0.90, snv=FALSE,
smooth=FALSE, nu=100, pdf=FALSE, ...)
An R
vector
of \(H_3(w)\), \(\tilde{H}_3(w)\), or \(\tilde{h}_3(w)\) is returned.
Nonexceedance probability \(u\) in the \(X\) direction (actually the ranks are used so this can be a real-value argument as well);
Nonexceedance probability \(v\) in the \(Y\) direction (actually the ranks are used so this can be a real-value argument as well) and if NULL
then u
is treated as a two column R data.frame
;
A vector of polar angle values \(W \in [0,1]\) on which to compute the \(H(w)\);
The nonexceedance probability \(F(S_f)\) of the pseudo-polar radius in psepolar
;
Return the standard normal variate of the \(H\) by the well-known transform through the quantile function of the standard normal, qnorm()
;
A logical to return \(\tilde{H}_3(w)\) instead of \(H_3(w)\);
The \(\nu > 0\) smoothing parameter;
A logical to return the smoothed probability density \(\tilde{h}_3(w)\). If pdf=TRUE
, then internally smooth=TRUE
will be set; and
Additional arguments to pass to the psepolar
function.
William Asquith william.asquith@ttu.edu
Kiriliouk, Anna, Segers, Johan, Warchoł, Michał, 2016, Nonparameteric estimation of extremal dependence: in Extreme Value Modeling and Risk Analysis, D.K. Dey and Jun Yan eds., Boca Raton, FL, CRC Press, ISBN 978--1--4987--0129--7.
psepolar
, stabtaildepf