forecast.lca: Forecast demogdata data using Lee-Carter method.
Description
The kt coefficients are forecast using a random walk with drift.
The forecast coefficients are then multiplied by bx to
obtain a forecast demographic rate curve.
Usage
# S3 method for lca
forecast(
object,
h = 50,
se = c("innovdrift", "innovonly"),
jumpchoice = c("fit", "actual"),
level = 80,
...
)
Value
Object of class fmforecast with the following components:
label
Region from which the data are taken.
age
Ages from object.
year
Years from object.
rate
List of matrices containing forecasts, lower bound and upper bound of prediction intervals.
Point forecast matrix takes the same name as the series that has been forecast.
fitted
Matrix of one-step forecasts for historical data
Other components included are
e0
Forecasts of life expectancies (including lower and upper bounds)
kt.f
Forecasts of coefficients from the model.
type
Data type.
model
Details about the fitted model
Arguments
object
Output from lca.
h
Number of years ahead to forecast.
se
Method used for computation of standard error. Possibilities: “innovdrift” (innovations and drift) and “innovonly” (innovations only).
jumpchoice
Method used for computation of jumpchoice. Possibilities: “actual” (use actual rates from final year) and “fit” (use fitted rates).