ensembleBMA (version 2.0)

brierSkillScores: Brier Skill Scores

Description

Computes ensemble, logistic, and BMA Brier Skill Scores given observation thresholds.

Usage

brierSkillScores( object, ensembleData, thresholds, popData = NULL, ...)

Arguments

object

An ensemble BMA model fit for ensembleData.

ensembleData

An ensembleData object giving including ensemble forecasts, observations, and dates corresponding to object.

thresholds

One or more threshold values with respect to which the Brier Skill Scores will be computed.

popData

For ensembleBMAgamma0 objects, there is an additional popData argument for providing predictors in the logistic regression for probability of precipitation. The value of popData (if any) used to create

...

Included for generic function compatibility.

Value

• A data frame giving the ensemble (voting), logistic, and BMA Brier Skill Scores for the specified thresholds.

Details

There will be a lot of warnings due to logistic fitting near the extremes.

References

G. W. Brier, Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability, Monthly Weather Review, 78:1-3 (1950).

T. Gneiting and A. E. Raftery, Strictly proper scoring rules, prediction and estimation, Technical Report No. 463R, Department of Statistics, University of Washington, November 2006 (to appear in Journal of the American Statistical Association).

See Also

crpsANDmae, ensembleBMA

Examples

data(prcp)

  prcpData <- ensembleData( dates = prcp$date, observations = prcp$obs,
                          forecasts = prcp[,c("CENT","AVN","CMCG","ETA",
                                      "GASP","JMA","NGPS","TCWB","UKMO")])
prcpFit <- ensembleBMAgamma0(prcpData)
 
  hist(prcpData$obs)

  brierSkillScores(prcpFit, prcpData, thresholds = c(0, 10, 50, 100))