ensembleBMA (version 2.0)

prcp: Precipitation Data Set

Description

This is a subset of daily 48 hour forecasts of 24 hour accumulated precipitation over the US Pacific Northwest region in 2003-2004 based on the 9 member University of Washington mesoscale ensemble (Grimit and Mass 2002; Eckel and Mass 2005). Note that forecasts are not available for some of the interim dates.

format

A data frame with 175 rows and 15 columns: CENT - forecasts from the CENT member of the ensemble (numeric). AVN - forecasts from the AVN member of the ensemble (numeric). CMCG - forecasts from the CMCG member of the ensemble (numeric). ETA - forecasts from the ETA member of the ensemble (numeric). GASP - forecasts from the GASP member of the ensemble (numeric). JMA - forecasts from the JMA member of the ensemble (numeric). NGAPS - forecasts from the NGAPS member of the ensemble (numeric). TCWB - forecasts from the TCWB member of the ensemble (numeric). UKMO - forecasts from the UKMO member of the ensemble (numeric). observation - the observed sea-level pressure (numeric). date - the date of each forecast/observation set, in the format YYYYMMDDHH (categorical). station - weather station identifier (categorical). latitude - the latitude of each weather station (numeric). longitude - the longitude of each weather station (numeric). elevation - the elevation of each weather station (numeric).

Details

This dataset is a small subset of the data used in Sloughter et al. (2006), provided for the purposes of testing. Typically forecasting would be performed on much larger datasets.

References

E. P. Grimit and C. F. Mass, Initial results of a mesoscle short-range ensemble forecasting system over the Pacific Northwest, Weather and Forecasting 17:192--205, 2002.

F. A. Eckel and C. F. Mass, Effective mesoscle, short-range ensemble forecasting, Weather and Forecasting 20:328--350, 2005.

J. M. Sloughter, A. E. Raftery, T. Gneiting and C. Fraley, Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting using Bayesian Model Averaging, Technical Report No. 496R, Department of Statistics, University of Washington, October 2006 (to appear in Montly Weather Review).

Examples

data(prcp)

  prcpData <- ensembleData( dates = prcp$date, observations = prcp$obs,
                          forecasts = prcp[,c("CENT","AVN","CMCG","ETA",
                                      "GASP","JMA","NGPS","TCWB","UKMO")])
  prcpFit <- ensembleBMA(prcpData, model = "gamma0")