ensembleBMA (version 2.1)

prcpGrid: Gridded Ensemble Forecasts of Precipitation

Description

This data set gives 48-hour forecasts of 24 hour accumulated precipitation on a grid of locations in the US Pacific Northwest initialized on January 11, 2003 OOZ and valid on January 13, 2003 OOZ. The ensemble forecasts come from a nine member version of the University of Washington Mesoscale Ensemble (Grimit and Mass 2002; Eckel and Mass 2005). Precipitation amounts are quantized to hundredths of an inch.

format

A data frame with 8188 rows and 11 columns: avn/gfs,cent,cmcg,eta,gasp,jma,ngps,tcwb,ukmo forecasts from the 9 members of the ensemble (numeric). latitude the latitude of each forecast (numeric). longitude the longitude of each forecast (numeric).

References

E. P. Grimit and C. F. Mass, Initial results of a mesoscale short-range ensemble forecasting system over the Pacific Northwest, Weather and Forecasting 17:192--205, 2002.

F. A. Eckel and C. F. Mass, Effective mesoscale, short-range ensemble forecasting, Weather and Forecasting 20:328--350, 2005.

J. M. Sloughter, A. E. Raftery, T. Gneiting and C. Fraley, Probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasting using Bayesian model averaging, Monthly Weather Review 135:3209--3220, 2007.

C. Fraley, A. E. Raftery, T. Gneiting and J. M. Sloughter, ensembleBMA: An R Package for Probabilistic Ensemble Forecasting using Bayesian Model Averaging, Technical Report No. 516, Department of Statistics, University of Washington, August 2007.

Examples

data(prcpGrid) 

  prcpGridData <- ensembleData(forecasts = prcpGrid[,1:9], 
                               latitude = prcpGrid[,"latitude"],
                               longitude = prcpGrid[,"longitude"])

  data(prcpFit)

# median forecast for Jan 13, 2003 at the grid points

  quantileForecastBMA( prcpFit, prcpGridData, date = "20030113")