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neverhpfilter Package

Introduction

In the working paper titled "Why You Should Never Use the Hodrick-Prescott Filter", James D. Hamilton proposes a new alternative to economic time series filtering. The neverhpfilter package provides functions and data for reproducing his solution. Hamilton (2017) doi:10.3386/w23429

Hamilton's abstract offers an excellent introduction:

(1) The HP filter produces series with spurious dynamic relations that have no basis in the underlying data-generating process. (2) Filtered values at the end of the sample are very different from those in the middle, and are also characterized by spurious dynamics. (3) A statistical formalization of the problem typically produces values for the smoothing parameter vastly at odds with common practice, e.g., a value for $\lambda$ far below 1600 for quarterly data. (4) There's a better alternative. A regression of the variable at date $t + h$ on the four most recent values as of date $t$ offers a robust approach to detrending that achieves all the objectives sought by users of the HP filter with none of its drawbacks.

Getting Started

Install from CRAN on R version >= 3.5.0.

install.packages("neverhpfilter")

Or install from the Github master branch on R version >= 3.5.0.

devtools::install_github("JustinMShea/neverhpfilter")

Load the package

library(neverhpfilter)

Package Documentation

The package consists of 2 estimation functions, 12 economic xts objects, an xts object containing Robert Shiller's U.S. Stock Markets and CAPE Ratio data from 1871 to Present, and a data.frame containing the original filter estimates found on table 2 of Hamilton (2017) doi:10.3386/w23429

Documentation for each can be found here:

Finally, a vignette recreating the estimates of the original work can be found in Reproducing Hamilton.

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Version

Install

install.packages('neverhpfilter')

Monthly Downloads

381

Version

0.4-0

License

GPL-3

Maintainer

Justin Shea

Last Published

June 18th, 2021

Functions in neverhpfilter (0.4-0)

GDPDEF

Gross Domestic Product: Implicit Price Deflator
GS10

10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate
GDPC1

Gross Domestic Product
GCEC1

Real Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment
Hamilton_table_2

Hamilton_table_2
yth_glm

Fits Hamilton's alternative model
EXPGSC1

Real Exports of Goods and Services
GPDIC1

Real Gross Private Domestic Investment
yth_filter

Filtered xts object
PAYEMS

Employment Situation
PCECC96

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures
UNRATENSA

Civilian Unemployment Rate
FEDFUNDS

Effective Federal Funds Rate
SP500

U.S. Stock Markets and CAPE Ratio
IMPGSC1

Real imports of goods and services
USREC

Recession Indicators Series