pcvr (version 1.2.0)

barg: Function to help fulfill elements of the Bayesian Analysis Reporting Guidelines.

Description

The Bayesian Analysis Reporting Guidelines were put forward by Kruschke (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-021-01177-7) to aide in reproducibility and documentation of Bayesian statistical analyses that are sometimes unfamiliar to reviewers or scientists. The purpose of this function is to summarize goodness of fit metrics from one or more Bayesian models made by growthSS and fitGrowth. See details for explanations of those metrics and the output.

Usage

barg(fit, ss = NULL, priors = NULL)

Value

A named list containing Rhat, ESS, NEFF, and Trace/Prior/Posterior Predictive plots. See details for interpretation.

Arguments

fit

A conjugate object, brmsfit object, or a list of brmsfit objects in the case that you split models to run on subsets of the data for computational simplicity.

ss

The growthSS output used to specify the model. If fit is a list then this can either be one growthSS list in which case the priors are assumed to be the same for each model or it can be a list of the same length as fit. Note that the only parts of this which are used are the call$start which is expected to be a call, pcvrForm, and df list elements, so if you have a list of brmsfit objects and no ss object you can specify a stand-in list. This can also be left NULL (the default) and posterior predictive plots and prior predictive plots will not be made.

priors

A list of priors similar to how they are specified in conjugate but named for the distribution you plan to use, see details and examples.

Details

The majority of the Bayesian Analysis and Reporting Guidelines are geared towards statistical methods that use MCMC or other numeric approximations. For those cases (here meaning brms models fit by fitGrowth and growthSS) the output will contain:

• General: This includes chain number, length, and total divergent transitions per model. Divergent transitions are a marker that the MCMC had something go wrong. Conceptually it may be helpful to think about rolling a marble over a 3D curve then having the marble suddenly jolt in an unexpected direction, something happened that suggests a problem/misunderstood surface. In practice you want extremely few (ideally no) divergences. If you do have divergences then consider specifying more control parameters (see brms::brm or examples for fitGrowth). If the problem persists then the model may need to be simplified. For more information on MCMC and divergence see the stan manual (https://mc-stan.org/docs/2_19/reference-manual/divergent-transitions).

• ESS: ESS stands for Effective Sample Size and is a goodness of fit metric that approximates the number of independent replicates that would equate to the same amount of information as the (autocorrelated) MCMC iterations. ESS of 1000+ is often considered as a pretty stable value, but more is better. Still, 100 per chain may be plenty depending on your applications and the inference you wish to do. One of the benefits to using lots of chains and/or longer chains is that you will get more complete information and that benefit will be shown by a larger ESS. This is separated into "bulk" and "tail" to represent the middle and tails of the posterior distribution, since those can sometimes have very different sampling behavior. A summary and the total values are returned, with the summary being useful if several models are included in a list for fit argument

• Rhat: Rhat is a measure of "chain mixture". It compares the between vs within chain values to assess how well the chains mixed. If chains did not mix well then Rhat will be greater than 1, with 1.05 being a broadly agreed upon cutoff to signify a problem. Running longer chains should result in lower Rhat values. The default in brms is to run 4 chains, partially to ensure that there is a good chance to check that the chains mixed well via Rhat. A summary and the total values are returned, with the summary being useful if several models are included in a list for fit argument

• NEFF: NEFF is the NEFF ratio (Effective Sample Size over Total MCMC Sample Size). Values greater than 0.5 are generally considered good, but there is a consensus that lower can be fine down to about 0.1. A summary and the total values are returned, with the summary being useful if several models are included in a list for fit argument

• mcmcTrace: A plot of each model's MCMC traces. Ideally these should be very mixed and stationary. For more options for visualizing MCMC diagnostics see bayesplot::mcmc_trace.

• priorPredictive: A plot of data simulated from the prior using plotPrior. This should generate data that is biologically plausible for your situation, but it will probably be much more variable than your data. That is the effect of the mildly informative thick tailed lognormal priors. If you specified non-default style priors then this currently will not work.

• posteriorPredictive: A plot of each model's posterior predictive interval over time. This is the same as plots returned from growthPlot and shows 1-99 coming to a mean yellow trend line. These should encompass the overwhelming majority of your data and ideally match the variance pattern that you see in your data. If parts of the predicted interval are biologically impossible (area below 0, percentage about 100 model should be reconsidered.

For analytic solutions (ie, the conjugate class) there are fewer elements.

• priorSensitivity: Patchwork of prior sensitivity plots showing the distribution of posterior probabilities, any interpretation changes from those tests, and the random priors that were used. This is only returned if the priors argument is specified (see below).

• posteriorPredictive: Plot of posterior predictive distributions similar to that from a non-longitudinal fitGrowth model fit with brms.

• Summary: The summary of the conjugate object.

Priors here are specified using a named list. For instance, to use 100 normal priors with means between 5 and 20 and standard deviations between 5 and 10 the prior argument would be list("rnorm" = list("mean" = c(5, 20), "sd" = c(5, 10), "n" = 100))). The priors that are used in sensitivity analysis are drawn randomly from within the ranges specified by the provided list. If you are unsure what random-generation function to use then check the conjugate docs where the distributions are listed for each method in the details section.

See Also

plotPrior for visual prior predictive checks.

Examples

# \donttest{
simdf <- growthSim("logistic",
  n = 20, t = 25,
  params = list("A" = c(200, 160), "B" = c(13, 11), "C" = c(3, 3.5))
)
ss <- growthSS(
  model = "logistic", form = y ~ time | id / group, sigma = "logistic",
  df = simdf, start = list(
    "A" = 130, "B" = 12, "C" = 3,
    "sigmaA" = 20, "sigmaB" = 10, "sigmaC" = 2
  ), type = "brms"
)
fit_test <- fitGrowth(ss,
  iter = 600, cores = 1, chains = 1, backend = "cmdstanr",
  sample_prior = "only" # only sampling from prior for speed
)
barg(fit_test, ss)
fit_2 <- fit_test
fit_list <- list(fit_test, fit_2)
x <- barg(fit_list, list(ss, ss))

x <- conjugate(
  s1 = rnorm(10, 10, 1), s2 = rnorm(10, 13, 1.5), method = "t",
  priors = list(
    list(mu = 10, sd = 2),
    list(mu = 10, sd = 2)
  ),
  plot = FALSE, rope_range = c(-8, 8), rope_ci = 0.89,
  cred.int.level = 0.89, hypothesis = "unequal",
  bayes_factor = c(50, 55)
)
b <- barg(x, priors = list("rnorm" = list("n" = 10, "mean" = c(5, 20), "sd" = c(5, 10))))
# }