bal
implements the balance approach for the quantification of qualitative survey data. A description of the method can be found in Batchelor (1986).
bal(y.series, survey.up, survey.same, survey.down, forecast.horizon,
first.period = 1, last.period = (length(survey.up) - forecast.horizon),
growth.limit = NA, suppress.warnings = FALSE)
y.series
would be the series of inflation data.
y.series
to increase. This vector needs to be of the same length as y.series
.
y.series
to stay the same. This vector needs to be of the same length as y.series
.
y.series
to decrease. This vector needs to be of the same length as y.series
.
y.series
is monthly data and the survey question asks respondents to assess the development of the variable over the next six months then forecast.horizon=6
.
survey.up
, survey.same
and survey.down
shall be used for quantification; default value is 1
.
survey.up
, survey.same
and survey.down
shall be used for quantification; default value is length(survey.up) - forecast.horizon
.
y
. growth.limit
defines a limit for percentage change of y
. When this limit is exceeded the growth rate is set automatically to the median growth of y
over the period covered by the expectations. Default value is NA
.
FALSE
) or not (TRUE
). Default value is FALSE
.
y.e.mean.abs
: a numeric vector containing the quantified mean expectations of the variable y
, assuming that survey respondents form expectations on the absolute change in y
. For all periods which are not in scope of the survey the value is NA
.
y.e.mean.perc
: a numeric vector containing the quantified mean expectations of the variable y
, assuming that survey respondents form expectations on the relative change in y
. For all periods which are not in scope of the survey the value is NA
.
delta.y.e.mean.abs
: a numeric vector containing the quantified mean absolute change of the variable y
, assuming that survey respondents form expectations on the absolute change in y
. For all periods which are not in scope of the survey the value is NA
.
delta.y.e.mean.perc
: a numeric vector containing the quantified mean percentage change of the variable y
, assuming that survey respondents form expectations on the relative change in y
. For all periods which are not in scope of the survey the value is NA
.
delta.y.e.sd.abs
: a numeric vector containing the standard deviation of the absolute change expectation for variable y
in the population. Assumes that survey respondents form expectations on the absolute change in y
. For all periods which are not in scope of the survey the value is NA
.
delta.y.e.sd.perc
: a numeric vector containing the standard deviation of the absolute change expectation for variable y
in the population. Assumes that survey respondents form expectations on the relative change in y
. For all periods which are not in scope of the survey the value is NA
.
theta.abs
: a numeric vector containing the estimated factor which scales the difference between the shares of 'up' respondents and 'down' respondents assuming that survey respondents form expectations on the absolute change in variable y
. For all periods which are not in scope of the survey the value is NA
.
theta.perc
: a numeric vector containing the estimated factor which scales the difference between the shares of 'up' respondents and 'down' respondents assuming that survey respondents form expectations on the relative change in variable y
. For all periods which are not in scope of the survey the value is NA
.
nob
: a numeric value showing the number of periods for which expectations have been quantified.
mae.abs
: a numeric value showing the mean absolute error (MAE) of expectations when survey respondents form expectations on the absolute change in variable y
.
rmse.abs
: a numeric value showing the root mean squared error (RMSE) of expectations when survey respondents form expectations on the absolute change in variable y
.
mae.perc
: a numeric value showing the mean absolute error (MAE) of expectations when survey respondents form expectations on the relative change in variable y
.
rmse.perc
: a numeric value showing the root mean squared error (RMSE) of expectations when survey respondents form expectations on the relative change in variable y
.
bal
provides two alternative versions of quantified expectations, depending on the assumed expectation formation process of survey respondents. The basic common assumption of the balance method is that survey participants are asked to assess whether variable y
will go up or down or stay the same. Survey respondents can now form expectations on either the absolute or the relative change of y
which differ because the scaling factors (thetas) used to scale the difference between the shares of 'up' and the 'down' respondents are calculated differently in each case. The bal
function calculates both versions.The survey result vectors survey.up
, survey.down
and survey.same
as well as the variable y.series
must be of the same length and must cover the forecasted horizon (i.e. last.period
+ forecast.horizon
$\le$ length(survey.up)
).
Data in survey.up
, survey.down
and survey.same
outside the survey period interval [first.period, last.period]
are ignored. Similiarly, y.series
data with a period index greater than last.period
is ignored.
survey.up
, survey.down
and survey.same
need not sum up to 100%
or 1
(which may happen, for example, if the survey has a 'Don't know' answer option).
quantification-package
, cp
, ra
, ce
## Data preparation: generate a sample dataset with inflation and survey data
inflation<-c(1.7, 1.9, 2, 1.9, 2, 2.1, 2.1, 2.1, 2.4, 2.3, 2.4)
answer.up<-c(67, 75.1, 76.4, 72.4, 69.7, 49.7, 45.2, 31.6, 14.9, 19.3, 19.2)
answer.same<-c(30.1, 19.6, 19.5, 21.3, 20.1, 33.1, 34.4, 33.5, 44.6, 38.1, 35.3)
answer.down<-c(2.9, 5.3, 4.1, 6.3, 10.2, 17.2, 20.4, 34.9, 40.5, 42.6, 45.5)
## Call bal for quantification
quant.bal<-bal(inflation, answer.up, answer.same, answer.down, first.period=5,
last.period=7, forecast.horizon=4)
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