This is a toy data set to examine the time in which we should expect China
to overtake the United States in total gross domestic product (GDP),
given current trends. It includes an OECD long-term GDP forecast from 2014,
and forecasts from the forecast and prophet packages in R.
usa_chn_gdp_forecastsA data frame with 182 observations on the following 12 variables.
countrya character vector (United States, China)
yeara numeric vector for the year
p_gdpy-hats (forecasted GDP) from a prophet forecast
p_lo80lower bound (80%) of y-hats (forecasted GDP) from a prophet forecast
p_hi80upper bound (80%) of y-hats (forecasted GDP) from a prophet forecast
gdpobserved GDP, made available to the World Bank and OECD national accounts data. Available from 1960 to 2019.
f_gdpforecasted GDP from 2020 to 2050, from the forecast package
f_lo80lower bound (80%) forecasted GDP from 2018 to 2050, from the forecast package
f_hi80upper bound (80%) forecasted GDP from 2018 to 2050, from the forecast package
f_lo95lower bound (95%) forecasted GDP from 2018 to 2050, from the forecast package
f_hi95upper bound (95%) forecasted GDP from 2018 to 2050, from the forecast package
oecd_ltgdpflong-term GDP forecast from the OECD via the OECD Outlook No 95 - May 2014
Forecasts from the forecast package and prophet
package are rudimentary and bare minimum forecasts based on previous values
to that point. Notice the forecast forecasts have a prefix of
f_ and the prophet forecasts have a prefix of
p_. Forecasts are not meant to be exhaustive (clearly), only
illustrative for in-class discussion about the "Rise of China." Forecasts
made in R on Nov. 20, 2020.