tverify: Verification of ternary forecasts / observations

Description

Function to create verification information associated with a set of forecasts p and associated observations o.

Usage

tverify(p, o, q, forceq, ncirc, L)
# S3 method for default
tverify(p = cbind(1, 1, 1)/3, o = cbind(0, 0, 1), 
        q = cbind(1, 1, 1)/3, forceq = FALSE, 
        ncirc = 11, L = diag(c(1, 1, 1))/sqrt(2))
# S3 method for tverify
plot(x, thresh = 0, lsharp = TRUE, 
     L = diag(c(1, 1, 1))/sqrt(2),...)

Value

An object of class tverify, which is a list containing the following components:

pbin: array of bins in barycentric coordinates.
Nobs: number of forecasts in each bin.
obar: mean onservation associated with each forecast bin.
score: score associated with each forecast bin.
unc: uncertainty associated with each forecast bin.
rel: reliability associated with each forecast bin.
res: resolution associated with each forecast bin.
scorebar: overall score.
uncbar: overall uncertainty.
relbar: overall reliability.
resbar: overall resolution.
ncirc: number of bins along each side of triangle.
p: input forecast data.
o: input observation data.
assigned: index of bin assigned to each forecast.
L: scoring matrix used.
hexc: array of hexagon centres.
q: climatology.
pk: forecasts set to centre of each bin (tverify) or recalibrated (tgetcal)
ok: mean observations corresponding to forecasts pk
pars: parameters in calibration (tgetcal only).
opt: details of calibration (tgetcal only ).
f: calibration function (tgetcal only, for use with tcalibrate).

Arguments

p: An n-by-3 matrix of ternary forecasts.
o: An n-by-3 matrix of ternary observations.
q: A 1-by-3 matrix containing the climatology.
forceq: A logical. If forceq = TRUE then the input climatology q is used. If forceq = FALSE a climatology is calculated from o.
ncirc: Controls discretisation of barycentric coordinates. (The number of hexagons along each side of the triangle.)
x: An object of the tverify class (as produced by tverify or tgetcal.
thresh: A `threshold' number of forecasts in a `bin', below which the forecast will not be plotted. (Prevents diagram being cluttered by very rare forecasts).
lsharp: Logical controlling whether a ternary sharpness diagram is to be included.
L: A quadratic scoring matrix. The matrix for the Brier score is the default. Full functionality for other scores not yet implemented.
...: Not used.

Author

Tim Jupp

References

Jupp TE, Lowe R, Stephenson DB, Coelho CAS (2012) On the visualization, verification and recalibration of ternary probabilistic forecasts, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, volume 370, pages 1100-1120.

https://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/370/1962/1100.full/

https://arxiv.org/abs/1103.1303/

Examples

Run this code

data(foot)                            # get football betting data
tv   <- tverify(p=foot$p,o=foot$o)    # get verification info
plot(tv)                              # plot verification info

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