bssm (version 2.0.2)

drownings: Deaths by drowning in Finland in 1969-2019

Description

Dataset containing number of deaths by drowning in Finland in 1969-2019, corresponding population sizes (in hundreds of thousands), and yearly average summer temperatures (June to August), based on simple unweighted average of three weather stations: Helsinki (Southern Finland), Jyvaskyla (Central Finland), and Sodankyla (Northern Finland).

Format

A time series object containing 51 observations.

Examples

data("drownings")
model <- bsm_ng(drownings[, "deaths"], u = drownings[, "population"],
  xreg = drownings[, "summer_temp"], distribution = "poisson",
  beta = normal(0, 0, 1),
  sd_level = gamma_prior(0.1,2, 10), sd_slope = gamma_prior(0, 2, 10))

fit <- run_mcmc(model, iter = 5000,
  output_type = "summary", mcmc_type = "approx")
fit
ts.plot(model$y/model$u, exp(fit$alphahat[, 1]), col = 1:2)